The Current #199 – Paid to Protest

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The Current #199 – Paid to Protest
Thursday October 27, 2011
Host: Jacob Bodnar

STORIES
Occupy Wall Street Protests…still
Finally have a list of demands, and they’re ridiculous
ACORN funding the Occupy Protests
Occupy Baltimore revises sexual misconduct code
Drunk 11 year-old at Occupy protest
Thermal imaging proves no one stays overnight at Occupy London
Peter Schiff takes down Occupy protesters
Additional Reading: Why income disparity isn’t take big of a deal
Obama Announces Student Loan Initative
Details of the Plan
Analysis shows would save students $8/month
2012 Presidential Race
Perry Proposes 20% flat tax
Conservatives perfer flat tax to 9-9-9
New Perry campaign ad touts jobs
New poll shows Romney on top in first four states

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The Current #196 – Occupying Everything

Cross posted at RedTIE.tv

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The Current #196 – Occupying Everything
Monday October 17, 2011
Hosts: Jacob Bodnar and Jared Weseman

STORIES
Occupy Wall Street Movement in Full Force
Don’t have a clear message
Corporate funded protest coming soon
Political group paying people to protest
College Student wants tuition paid for because that’s what he wants
Protesters complain about bank fees, forget it’s the government’s fault
Jacob’s blog post about sub-prime mortgages
2012 Election Getting Turned on its Head
Latest poll has Cain, Romney tied with Obama
RCP Average has Cain, Romney in statistical tie
Cain’s 9-9-9 plan might include a VAT tax
Ron Paul proposes $1 trillion in cuts
Obama’s Jobs Bill
…fails to pass Democratically controlled Senate, The One blames GOP
AP Fact Check of Obama’s Speech
NY Post: Obama a loner, rarely speaks with Cabinet

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Time to Occupy Your Brain

The Occupy Wall Street “protests” have been ongoing for at least a week now. Truthfully, I have no idea when they started, I haven’t really been paying attention to them (I’ll get to why later).

Reaction has been split. Seems there are people who completely agree with them, there are people who agree with the general “message” but aren’t so sure about the rushing the police barcades and 700 arrests in one night thing, and there are people who do not agree at all and enjoy poking fun at the protesters, “Hey Occupy Wall Street why don’t you Occupy a Job” is one of my personal favorites. I also think they should start occupying a shower soon, sitting around in a park in New York makes you smelly.

I find it tough because I don’t necessarily disagree that Wall Street is greedy, but I also think there’s another body of people that have more power and more to do with this problem that are also greedy and convene 230 miles southwest of New York, happens to be the federal government.

If the government wasn’t so unnecessarily large and powerful, Wall Street and other industries wouldn’t want to lobby them as hard. I personally think politicians are knee deep in greed and pay offs from various industries, but that’s only because they wield a lot of power. Take that power away, and suddenly buying them off doesn’t serve much of a purpose.

Occupy Wall Street seems to think that eliminating Wall Street greed will solve all of our problems. Unfortunately it isn’t that simple, in fact that movement, if you want to call it that, as a whole seems rather ignorant of our economic issues. It vaguely reminds me of hippies and the anti-war/peace movement of the 60′s and 70′s. Hippies weren’t really advocating for peace, I’m sure they cared about peace, but that really wasn’t the reason they existed. They just wanted to get together and smoke pot. It was a rebellious subculture, that just happened to pick anti-war because it was a prominent and contentious issue at the time.

Is that a disenfranchised person I see computing on their expensive Mac?

This “Occupy” movement is no different. The most active members appear to be younger people, and they also appear to be oblivious to real life, much like the Hippies of a half-century ago. The Hippies were not accepted by the majority of people not because they smelled horrendous, although I’m sure that didn’t help, but because they were viewed as stuck up middle class or affluent brats that simply wanted to be “different.” The movement wasn’t taken seriously because it wasn’t a group of serious people.

Same applies here. I cannot tell you how many photos I’ve seen from this Occupy Wall Street get together that include protesters in $100 sunglasses and taking photos with their iPads. Not to mention they’re streaming content over a wireless network, not exactly an activity associated with the disenfranchised. Either these people are faking their disenfranchisement, or the only person they have to blame is themselves because they frivolously purchased expensive accessories and iPads.

Put simply, it is hard to take people complaining about “greed” seriously when their clothes are worth more than a minimum wage worker’s paycheck and they’re carrying around an iPad. Same way it was difficult to take the Hippies seriously when all they seemed to do was smoke pot, attend concerts, and complain about “the establishment.”

Just like the Hippies didn’t really have any clear goals about peace and war, the Occupy people don’t seem to have any clear objective with their demonstrations. As a matter of fact, I’m not even entirely sure what they’re complaining about.

To the best of my knowledge they are upset with the bank’s aggressive lending of sub-prime mortgages, which is ironic on two counts:
1.) These same people that complain about over-lending then, complain now that banks aren’t free enough with credit, and are being too prudent when determining who to lend money to.
2.) Those same pesky people in Washington I discussed earlier, have a little something to do with all those sub-prime mortgages.

How peaceful and nice - a lot of these people seriously believe Wall Street needs to die.

Between 1996 and 2004 only 9% of all mortgages were sub-prime mortgages. From 2004-2006 21% of all mortgages were sub-prime, that’s a huge difference. Keep those numbers in mind, you’ll need them later.

So what’s the government have to do with this?

Well, in 1997 the government wasn’t so happy with bank’s lending practices. They called it “redlining,” which is a term that was coined years before, but basically means that banks and other service providers would unfairly lend or unfairly increase the price of services for people living in a certain area. This could be based on any factor they pleased, but the government argued that banks weren’t giving out mortgages to low-income people (go figure).

Banks were operating under the traditional model of a mortgage. Family A wants to buy a house, so they go to Bank A. The bank assesses Family A to determine if they are too risky to lend to, or if the bank can have certainty that they’ll be financially able to meet the obligations. Bank A makes the decision that Family A is a reputable bunch (think The Brady Bunch) and decides to give them money. Then Family A pays back the loaned amount over a agreed upon time span.

This was a great way to go about business but the government thought it was too restrictive. For starters, Bank A could only lend money from the pool of deposits they received from their customers, meaning they couldn’t loan to any Tom, Dick, and Harry that wanted a house. Furthermore, because the bank took on the entire risk of the loan, they were very hesitant to loan to people that might not be able to pay the money back. How dare they!

Outraged, the government decided to do something about this. So they passed the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). With such a fancy and populist name it had to have done good things, right?

Wrong.

It was a massive regulation. I’m not even going to scratch the surface of explaining it all, but in a nutshell it pressured, or as the government said “encouraged,” banks to lend to lower income people. AKA, people who had no business buying a home or taking out a mortgage. This way all would be fair.

So what does this have to do with sub-prime mortgages. A lot actually.

Sub-prime mortgages do two things for banks:
1.) Allow more funding for lending
2.) Shift the risk to someone else – or at least a good chunk of the risk

Well would you look at that, the two factors stopping banks for lending to everyone and their dog could now be taken away. So banks started relying more heavily on sub-prime mortgages.

A sub-prime mortgage is rather complicated, at least when compared to a traditional mortgage. Family A knows they have bad credit, and they know they have a very small chance of being approved for a traditional mortgage, so they seek out a mortgage broker (or in some instances the broker seeks them out). The broker goes to Bank A and says Family A would like a loan. Awesome, says Bank A, let’s go appraise the house.

A home appraiser comes in, appraises the house, and Family A gets their loan! Yippie! Well, that’s yippie until they see their interest rate and other fine print (which they should have read before signing their names on the dotted line). Sub-prime mortgages have a higher interest rate because it’s a riskier loan, so the bank wants a bigger payoff. Rule of thumb: the riskier the loan, the higher the interest rate (there are many other factors including time frame to pay off, but you get the idea).

Before this all happens, Bank A sells mortgage bonds to an entity, like Freddie Mac (remember that name), and then makes bond payments to that entity. Meaning technically speaking, the money for that mortgage hasn’t come from the bank’s coffers, but rather the person who purchases the mortgage bond. And that entity might not even technically be responsible because they could have sold off their obligation to someone else and so one and so forth.

It should be known, banks don’t like to do this, they would rather operate conservatively and prudently by only loaning to people they know can repay. However, the government, and other outside organizations, pressured them to lend to people who simply had no business getting a home loan, and therefore banks relied on the sub-prime model to meet those obligations.

Remember those numbers from earlier? The percentage of loans that were sub-prime, and how they shot up in 2004? Well, there’s a reason for that as well:

Eager to put more low-income and minority families into their own homes, the agency required that two government-chartered mortgage finance firms purchase far more “affordable” loans made to these borrowers. HUD stuck with an outdated policy that allowed Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to count billions of dollars they invested in subprime loans as a public good that would foster affordable housing.

The Housing and Urban Development Department decided in 2004 that affordable housing was such a big issue, that it asked Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to take on more risky obligations, which would in turn spur more sub-prime lending:

The agency neglected to examine whether borrowers could make the payments on the loans that Freddie and Fannie classified as affordable. From 2004 to 2006, the two purchased $434 billion in securities backed by subprime loans, creating a market for more such lending. Subprime loans are targeted toward borrowers with poor credit, and they generally carry higher interest rates than conventional loans.

Now that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae had the green light to buy more of these mortgage bonds, there was greater demand for them, and thus banks lent more to low-income people and sub-prime borrowers. Good idea? Probably not, but it was enabled by the government’s decision to artificially change the market.

Just a general warning, I’m not a financial expert, this is a very crude description of this process and problem. But it is intended to be. It’s a very complicated issue, so I think explaining it in simple terms makes it much easier to understand and digest. But the take away is this: certainly Wall Street and banks must shoulder some of the blame for our economic collapse, but to say their “greed” is the root of the entire problem is simply ignorant.

The government pressured them to loan money to people who should not have been taking out a loan. And furthermore those people that took out the loans didn’t read and understand their mortgage well enough to plan for the high interest rates that were two years or more down the road (most sub-prime mortgages are only fixed rates for a few years).

This issue is so much more complicated then myself or a few hundred people sitting in a park in New York can understand. I don’t profess to pile the blame on one group, they do. So I’m more inclined to believe this whole “Occupy” movement is more about a rebellious subculture than it is about helping those in need by standing up to big banks.

If that was really the objective why are they freely using McDonald’s restrooms (big corporation funded by a big bank), Verizon’s wireless network (big corporation funded by a big bank), Apple’s technology (big corporation funded by a big bank), and being praised by MSNBC (Comcast, big corporation funded by a big bank). Everything they are using was somehow funded by one of these big banks they’re protesting, so it is difficult to take them seriously.

And I think for that reason this “movement” will fizzle out in the next two weeks. It’s a subculture, so it might stick around for a little while, but I think in 14 days time most of these people will be standing side-by-side millions of other Americans…

…occupying the unemployment line.

–jb

Sources
BBC News: US Sub-Prime The Downturn in Facts and Figures
The Sub-Prime Meltdown: An Explanation
Washington Post: How HUD Mortgage Policy Fed the Crisis

Sunday Column: Cain’s Great Week Nets Him Third Place

Can Herman Cain actually win?

I distinctly remember early on in this presidential campaign when there was only one major candidate that had officially filed papers and declared his candidacy.

When someone asked me who that person was I believe my response was, “I don’t know, but I know he’s there.”

That man was Herman Cain, an obscure name to most Americans outside of Georgia and the pizza industry. A man who had, quite literally, zero name recognition before the first Presidential debate. No one knew who he was, what he had been through, or any of his beliefs. He was just there.

The consensus at the beginning of Cain’s campaign was that he had no chance of winning. He was an unknown candidate running in a race that would largely focus on electability. And he had no political experience, outside of filing papers to run for the White House in 2000 and U.S. Senate in 2004.

The question was, how long would Herman Cain remain “there?”

After several debates and a major straw poll victory under his belt, screw just being there, Herman Cain is, as Randy Jackson would say, in it to win it. The question is now, “could this man really win this election?”

Cain has surged to nearly the top tier following a strong debate performance in the Fox News-Google debate. It could not have come at a better time, shortly after the debate he won the Florida Straw Poll, a poll that fellow contender Rick Perry was angling heavily to win. And in perfect public relations and marketing fashion, Cain released a book this week.

Talk about a fantastic 10 days.

But why now? Cain has performed well in nearly every debate. He’s been the only contender to consistently answer the questions directly and he rarely stumbles. Why all of a sudden is he surging?

Two reasons.

For starters, Cain had a tumultuous transition into the national spotlight. He made several foreign policy blunders and he was quoted as saying he wouldn’t appoint a Muslim to his cabinet. In all fairness, he’s since put a qualifier on that, essentially saying he would heavily vet any cabinet potential to assure the nation they are not a jihadist, but none-the-less, the blunders distracted Cain from pushing his common sense economic reforms.

Now that he’s got those missteps behind him, he has been able to focus his attention squarely on the economy and his solutions to bring it back to life. Which brings us to the second reason for his surge; the man makes sense.

His tax plan is simple and concise. It’s the 9-9-9 plan, I’m sure you remember it because, well uh, it’s easy to remember. Nine percent national sales tax, nine percent corporate income tax, and nine percent personal income tax.

It is quick and easy. And if you’d like more details, just ask him. On The Tonight Show, Jay Leno asked why it was fair for rich people to pay the same rate as someone making $25,000 a year.

Cain began his response by saying it is fair, and he’s right. In fact both those people paying the same rate is fairer than the current system. What isn’t “fair” in some people’s mind are the incomes, but let’s not forget, fair is not equal. The government’s job is to create and maintain a fair environment so that everyone has the opportunity to make whatever wage they see fit. The government’s job is not to make sure everyone has an equitable wage.

But Cain continued saying his plan would do away with the payroll tax, which currently stands at about 15%, so that person making $25,000 would actually see a net drop of 6% in their overall taxes.

He also said that his 9% national sales tax would only be applied to new goods. So, for example, if you purchase a used car, you wouldn’t owe national sales tax, just state sales tax.

The plan is easy and simple. And compared to a tax code that no human currently alive has read completely, it’s refreshing.

Compare it to Obama’s plan. While Cain’s plan is simple and easy to remember, Obama’s plan is complicated and overbearing. The payroll tax break alone is confusing because to be eligible you have to meet many requirements including only having one job and not being a dependent. However, even if you are not eligible you still get the extra money on your paycheck, you just have to pay it back come tax time.

We all assume that taxes are complicated and therefore any tax plan must be complicated. If it is complicated, it must be robust and comprehensive.

Clearly that is false.

Cain appeals to people because he makes sense. He makes government sound simple and easy. And most people agree that is how government should operate.

Before his surge Cain was polling at around 5%, since then he’s bumped his average up to 9%. In a Fox News poll he was polling at 17% – putting him in the top tier with Romney and Perry. Is he ready for top tier status? Not quite, there are still major foreign policy question he has to answer. And his lack of political “know-how” is troubling to some. But if there’s one thing Cain is succeeding at, it is challenging other republican contenders to offer simple and easy-to-understand solutions to solving our country’s problems.

Good news for Cain: there are several debates left on the calendar, and if he keeps performing like he has been, he’ll have a legitimate shot at top-tier status.

–jb

Boehner Walks Out, Debt Talks Dead

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure.”

Those are the wise words of Senator Barack Obama. Oh what a difference five years makes.

In 2006 when Obama voted no on a debt ceiling increase, claiming it would have continued Washington’s bad spending habits, he also took the time to take a shot at then President George Bush for failing to lead on the issue.

Now, we’re in the exact same scenario, but the rhetoric is a complete 180. The debt ceiling has to be raised less the government can’t pay their bills and all hell breaks lose. And that leadership thing? Well, Obama’s a great leader, he’s made so many sacrifices in this debate.

Today House Speaker John Boehner walked out of the debt meetings citing differing “visions” from the President. In other words, Obama sees the country going one way, and Boehner and Republicans see it going another. Obama wants to “raise revenues” to fix the debt, the republicans want to focus on spending cuts.

Obama has done little but whine and moan during this entire process, largely ignoring the issue until late May. He delegated the debt problem to a commission, ignored their findings, started another commission with Vice President Joe Biden as the overseer, Biden once again proved to be worthless, and then finally decided it was time for him to step in and get something done. Once again, Obama failed to lead on this issue.

“I expect them to have an answer as to how they expect to get this done in the next week.” – That’s one of the most telling Obama quotes of the day. He expects them to have an answer, he doesn’t expect himself, just them.

Let’s not forget, the republicans are the only party in these debates that have drafted a plan to raise the debt ceiling and cut spending in the process. They passed the Cut, Cap, and Balance proposal, it’s good legislation, although I do agree that it is too time crunched to debate a constitutional amendment. None-the-less, the democrats, and the White House, have not drafted a plan during the entire course of these debates.

Even the “Gang of Six” were able to come up with a compromise. It was a plan that saw hope early on, but died with time.

So, what should Obama have done in this situation, what would a leader have done?

Simple:
- Make clear to the American people that the government plans to meet its obligations and come to a compromise
- Make clear to the American people that in the event the government does not meet the deadline, they will send out social security checks and other payments
- Call all parties to the table (Boehner, Pelosi, Reid, McConnell)
- Discuss what each party wants in a debt ceiling plan and instead of focusing on differences, begin by drafting a plan built around the agreements each have
- Once a plan for agreements has been drafted, begin discussing disagreements, keeping a keen eye on what sub-compromises might be available for each disagreement
- Take all plans seriously, and do not publicly admit you’ll veto any plan (that simply complicates the discussions)
- As the leader, be the cool, calm, and collective one – don’t show too much emotion but make it known that the buck stops with you

Obama failed to lead for a variety of reasons:
1.) He played politics – Despite the fact that he scolded Congress and republicans specifically for playing politics, he managed to hold news conference after news conference in which he claimed he was doing all the giving and republicans wouldn’t budge. In that situation, stay quiet until a plan is decided, it does no good to publicly scold the other side of the aisle.
2.) He did not communicate well with the Americans people – He repeated told the American people what they believed, instead of listening to them. He falsely claimed 80% of them wanted revenues included in a deal. He didn’t assure them that government obligations to them in the form of social security and veterans payments would be a priority in the event of a default. And he disrespected the American people and the media.
3.) He did not remain cool, calm, and collective – He stormed out of one of the debt talk meetings in what was obviously a coordinated effort to gin up support for his plan and paint a picture of “Obama fighting for you.” He got too personal, too political, and didn’t listen to the other side.

Liberals will claim that republicans are at fault for all of the above as well, and I wouldn’t necessarily argue with that point. However, as President and as the leader of the talks, you are held to a higher standard. You are expected to command the room, be respectful to all sides, and eventually broker a deal. The rules are not the same for the leaders and those being lead. Period.

Obama continually made the point that he had compromised many cuts that his base would not be happy about. He never missed an opportunity to tout that aspect of his “negotiations.” To which the American people replied, big deal. You’re expected to make compromises that your base may not like, we’re not going to pat you on the back for doing what’s right for the general population. That would assume that, by default, you do what’s right for special interest and the base, not the people as a whole.

Ultimately, this revelation of Boehner backing out, hurts Obama. The American people view him as the leader of these discussions, and the leader does not let the talks crumble. If Obama had at least treated the republicans with respect in this debate, they would have stayed and continued the discussion. But instead he was stubborn, egotistical, and callous towards them. That’s not how you lead.

Yes, we have a budget deficit in Washington. But we also have a leadership deficit. We are in desperate need of someone who can throw party affiliation aside and get deals done, for the better of the country. Obama has proven he can’t, and won’t, do that. Good news, we can change that in 2012.

–jb

Obama’s Spending Cut Bluff

During the debt limit debates last week, Obama famously stormed out of the meetings and told Eric Cantor, “don’t call my bluff.”

What bluff was The One speaking of? His sudden attraction to spending cuts.

The President has made a big stink lately about how we can no longer “kick the can down the road” in regards to spending and the deficit. Lately, he’s sounded more like Paul Ryan than Paul Krugman. Unfortunately for Obama, budget proposals speak louder than words, and the only budget that the President has released to the public screams increased deficits and debt.

…The only budget proposal President Obama’s has publicly revealed in 2011 would, according to the Congressional Budget Office, increase the deficit by $26 billion this year, $83 billion next year, and $2.7 trillion over the next decade.

Nothing historically speaking would give any indication that Obama wants to make serious cuts in spending. He is in campaign mode, and when campaign mode is turned on, anything goes. Or, should I say, whatever the American people want, they will hear.

According to a new Gallup poll, 55% of Americans are worried that the government will raise the debt ceiling with no major cuts to future spending. Only 35% are worried that no compromise is met and an economic crisis occurs. So when the President tells the American people they’re “sold” on raising the debt ceiling, he’s only half right. The American people are sold…if it includes major cuts in future spending.

Hence why Obama is all of a sudden the poster child for spending cuts.

But again, policy speaks louder than words.

The House Rules Committee is expected to take up the measure Monday, and it is likely to receive a floor vote on Tuesday. The measure would cut spending in fiscal 2012 by $111 billion, cap future spending at 19.9 percent of gross domestic product and allow for the debt ceiling to be increased if a balanced-budget amendment is approved by Congress and sent to the states.

Sounds like a good plan to me. The cap on spending as a percent of GDP is actually pretty low when comparing to historic averages, it’s usually around 18.5% of GDP. And a balanced budget amendment would force Congress to actually care about what they spend our money on. Currently, there’s no accountability and they spend as if there’s no limit on the country’s credit card.

However, there’s one prominent politician that doesn’t seem to like this proposal. Barack Obama.

Gee, I thought he was the newly crowned champion of fiscal responsibility, oh well.

“Neither setting arbitrary spending levels nor amending the Constitution is necessary to restore fiscal responsibility,” the White House said in its statement. “Increasing the federal debt limit, which is needed to avoid a federal government default on its obligations and a severe blow to the economy, should not be conditioned on taking these actions. Instead of pursuing an empty political statement and unrealistic policy goals, it is necessary to move beyond politics as usual and find bipartisan common ground.”

What in the history of this country makes you think that fiscal responsibility can be restored without setting some arbitrary spending levels? We’ve had a spending problem for decades, we’ve known about it for decades, and nothing’s been done. If set a spending limit and make it law, we’ll suddenly be forced to spend within our means.

We’ve raised the debt ceiling 60 times before, we’re about to make it 61, and unless it’s tied to a balanced budget amendment or some hard and fast rules on spending, we’re going to have to raise it a 62nd, 63rd, and 64th time, and likely much more than that. Congress has given us no proof that they can spend responsible, none.

The administration also called the proposal, “extreme, radical [and] unprecedented.”

Good. Clearly the “status quo” isn’t working, so I’d say we need something “unprecedented.”

However, the key is that the republicans have a plan. That’s 1,000% more than the democrats or the White House can say. They talk about fiscal responsibility and spending wisely, yet they have no plan to execute that. Their plan seems to be, “well, we’ve learned our lesson, trust us, in the future, we’ll spending responsibly.”

Uh, no you won’t.

Don’t get me wrong, the republicans don’t exactly have a crystal clear record of fiscal sanity either, but at least their offering up proposals to restore sanity. While the republicans actually work to solve this problem, the democrats have been picking their nose and itching their butts.

Eric Cantor did call Obama’s bluff. He was holding a pair of twos and was going all in. He’s a great actor; pretending that he cares about spending, but everything we have on the record about Obama proves he’s more concerned with increasing the debt than decreasing it.

And despite what Obama thinks, the American people see through that, and know he’s pulling their leg.

–jb

The Current #188 – Debt Limit Limbo

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The Current #188 – Debt Limit Limbo
Sunday July 17, 2011
Hosts: Jacob Bodnar and Jared Weseman

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STORIES
Debt Limit Compromise still not achieved
Obama walks out on talks, “takes it to the American people”
Obama Gaffe #1 – Claims 80% of Americans want tax hikes in the deal
Polls suggest not quite that high
Obama Gaffe #2 – Not sure if social security checks will go out if US defaults
Obama Budget Director: We don’t have a priority list for spending if default happens
Shelia Jackson Lee says Obama doesn’t get respect because he’s black
Senator Barack Obama circa 2006 explains why he voted against debt limit increase
Harry Reid explains his no vote in 2006 as well
2012 Presidential Election
Gingrich in deep debt, mostly on private plane travel
Bachmann only raises $4 million in second quarter
Ron Paul releases first TV ad
Rudy Giuliani seriously eyeing presidential run
Rick Perry almost certainly running
“Generic Republican” extends lead over Obama
Everything Else
Obama doesn’t know his own birthday
Woman gropes TSA agent
Nanny State Update: Government shuts down another lemonade stand

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Out of Touch

In his third press conference in 17 days, President Obama stood in front of the American people and told them what they were thinking.

He told the American people that they were “sold.” He told the American people that he was listening to them, and that republicans were more concerned with ideology and playing the Washington way.

Then he preceded to lie about what the American people believe.

Obama made the claim that 80% of the American people support raising revenues (fancy talk for tax increases) as a way to come to an agreement on the debt limit.

At best, the number is somewhere around 43%, according to a Gallup poll. A Rasmussen poll shows that “just 34% think a tax hike should be included in any legislation to raise the debt ceiling.”

Well, there goes the argument that you understand the American people better than the Republicans.

There’s no doubt that everyone in this debate is in re-election mode. The 2012 election will be here before you know it, and it looks as though the debt limit talks are going to sway a lot of people one way or the other. Mitch McConnell has already stated that if the country does default it will have catastrophic results for the republicans electorally.

However, we have to remember, Obama has launched a re-election campaign, he’s in campaign mode as well. Is it any surprise that before this 17 day marathon of press conferences, Obama hadn’t held one since March? Of course not, the campaign wasn’t in full swing back then. Now, the debt limit is a major topic, and a major election issue, Obama needs to capitalize on it.

But he’s doing a rather poor job. He is the president, a deal should go through him. But instead Obama sat on the sideline until about four weeks ago. And now that he’s in the debate…well, it hasn’t gotten much better. It seemed a deal was close, then entitlements somehow got taken off the table and tax increases became a center piece. Instead of bringing people together, which was a campaign promise of his, it seems the sides are growing further apart.

Gosh, I thought Obama was the guy who would unite us and bring us together. We were tired of the bickering, that’s why we voted for him (well, I didn’t, but other people did). Has he come through on that promise at all? Or any of his promises outside of health care?

That’s a big, fat, no.

The administration is claiming that a deal will get done and the government won’t default, yet Obama himself opposes a short term solution that buys more time to argue the cuts. Wait, I thought default would send the world into a financial fireball, the likes of which won’t be seen for another fives years when global warming kills us all.

This is all politics, for both sides. They’re both stubborn, someone needs to step up, bring a real compromise to the table, and avert the crisis. Where are the real leaders at?

–jb

Facebook Debate: Education and the Budget

After Scott Walker and the Wisconsin Republicans stripped public union members of their collective bargaining power for benefits and working conditions, education has become a hot topic. Many states are faced with budget deficits and are being forced to cut funding from education.

This has created a debate about education reform in this country, a debate that is sorely needed. Per my new personal policy, the following is my response to someones comments about education from Facebook.

To start, education is the LAST thing that should EVER be cut because it is that alone which guarantees the future dominance of a country, economically at least.

Education is certainly an important part to growing the economy, however it alone is not the sole factor for growth, and it certainly is not alone as the only factor that “guarantees the future dominance” of a country’s economics.

Common sense tells you there’s far more to economic dominance than education. For starters immigration and mobility throws the entire scale into whack because people who may have been educated in China, which generally scores better than most countries, might come over to the United States to start a business or work. In fact that’s a rather common occurrence, more than people think with all the press about jobs we move over there.

Furthermore there’s tax rates, governmental red tape, population income, and various other factors that will determine the strength of a country’s economy. To prove this point I took the countries that rank in the top 30 in GDP and compared their PISA scores (the international education scores) to their GDP. The full document can be viewed here.

The correlation coefficient when comparing the two numbers was -0.158, which essentially means there’s absolutely no correlation between a country’s PISA score and their GDP (correlation is a scale from 0 to 1, with 1 being perfectly correlated). However, that does not mean that education isn’t an important factor to a country’s economy, it simply shows that it is ridiculous to think that education is the only factor that guarantees economic dominance.

To prove that point further I took those same countries and compared their GDP to their corporate tax rate (which can be found on page two of the document). The correlation coefficient was 0.654, which actually shows statistical correlation. However, I will stress this is too crude of a statistical study to make the assumption that education is less important to economic success than taxation, it simply shows that education isn’t the only factor.

The second part of this statement deals with educational funding. In the United States we’ve exploded our educational funding. In 1990 we spent, at all governmental levels, $248.9 billion on elementary and secondary education. In 2005 that number was $536 billion, about $200 billion over the rate of inflation. It’s clear that we have made a commitment to invest considerable money in education. However, as has been stated previously, we’re not showing very good results (ranking at around 15 in the world in PISA scores).

So clearly other countries have to be spending more on education, right?

Wrong.

Below is a chart provided by the Department of Education. It shows that across the globe, only two countries spend more per student than the United States.

Clearly simply throwing money at education doesn’t work, so I honestly I don’t see a harm in cutting funding. Other countries spend far less per student and get better results. I think we’ve become too focused on infrastructure and teacher benefits to actually put those newly invested dollars to work. As rough as it might sound, cutting education funding is a legitimate method to get administrators and lawmakers to spend money more efficiently on education.

Again, make it a federal program, and by the way, just because a 228 year old piece of paper doesn’t explicitly say that education can be determined by the national government doesn’t mean that it isn’t a good idea. Most developed countries have education at a national level, unlike the U.S., and perhaps it isn’t a wonder that they’re doing so much better than us in every measurable way. I know, Jacob, that you would love to cut out thousands of bureaucracies in favor of one, besides, it would be far more efficient anyway, wouldn’t it? (It seems like you would really support that idea to streamline government)

The “228 year old piece of paper” that he so condescendingly refers to is The Constitution. Ya know, the foundation of this country. No big deal.

The idea here is making education a federal program. Instead of states controlling curriculum and administration, the national government would do it all. For starters, it’s unconstitutional. That pesky 10th Amendment grants all rights not explicitly given to the federal government, to the states. So if you really want to make education a federal program, you’ll have to offer up an amendment that puts it in the constitution as a job of the federal government. Considering that requires ratification from the states, I doubt that will pass.

And no, the Constitution prohibiting it alone doesn’t make it a bad idea, there are various other reasons…

Bureaucracy isn’t always bad. The term has very negative connotations, but it is simply a group of people making administrative decisions. Hopefully those decisions and ideas are innovative and groundbreaking. I think education is one field where we could use that. I’m certainly not saying let’s hire a bunch of people to sit around and think, but I also don’t think putting educational development and curriculum building into the hands of a few is better than having it in the hands of many. If education was to become a federal program you’d have a bunch of people sitting in a room in Washington D.C. deciding what children across the entire country would learn. I truly believe that is a disastrous situation.

Education needs to be as local as possible because people learn differently. Education isn’t black and white. If curriculum decisions are made at the state level, we then have 50 states designing curriculum, and one state might have a really good addition to the curriculum and another state might follow suit. Or one state might have innovative new ways of teaching and interacting with students, and other states might follow in their footsteps. If we have one singular body doing that work, innovation will drop drastically.

Then there are the political reasons. It’s much more difficult to defeat an incumbent in a federal position than a state or local position. There are less votes for more local officials and it’s easier to mobilize the vote inside a single county or city than the entire state or country. Politicians at the federal level have more votes and more to take care of than state officials, and therefore their education votes might get clouded in other matters and it might be more difficult to convince people to vote them out if they do something undesirable.

Also, what government programs has the federal government successfully managed? Social security is on its way to insolvency and Medicaid and Medicare are riddled with fraud and inefficiency. And this is the entity that you want to run education?

The Department of Education is already an inefficient entity. It employs 5,000 people and it doesn’t even set the curriculum! If education was purely a federal program they’d clearly have to double, heck even triple the size of its staff. That is money we simply don’t have.

Also, when you make something a federal program, it’s very difficult to undo. If it failed as a federal program, that’s it, there’s really no going back to passing down power to the states again, it would be too costly and time consuming for them to reform their educational agencies.

“Most developed countries have education at a national level, unlike the U.S., and perhaps it isn’t a wonder that they’re doing so much better than us in every measurable way.”

That’s actually a myth. Most developed countries do not have education at the national level, I guess we all just like to think they do. Countries vary in great degree with how they organize their education, and believe it or not the United States isn’t the only country to delegate the task to municipalities.

In England education is broadly overseen by the Department of Education, but the policy and curriculum is developed at the local level – much like the United States. Germany has a similar system, the states play the major role in education, whereas the federal government takes more of a backseat. Australia is nearly the same way, as is Canada where curriculum is developed at the provincial level. Even The Netherlands relies heavily on localities to provide input for education, although it is mostly overseen by the Dutch Ministry of Education. And in Belgium education is overseen and financed by three separate communities.

The idea that most of the developed world has education controlled by a federal or national entity is simply wrong. I suppose you could take the time and tally up all the developed countries and where their educational power lies, but I doubt it is most.

Please also keep in mind that cutting spending isn’t the only way to solve these budget issues. By making government programs, WHICH DEFINE THE FIRST WORLD COUNTRIES (you won’t find a developed country without massive social programs and government spending) , more efficient and by raising taxes we can solve these problems even easier.

I’ll start off my response to this section by first making it clear that the definition of a first world country does not come from the amount of government programs a country has, that’s an absurd definition that no one accepts as valid. The definition, for starters, isn’t really clear. It was clear during the Cold War, when first world countries were generally viewed as nations that aligned with the United States and embraced capitalism. Now the definition is murky. The UN uses Gross National Product, many people use the Human Development Index, and other use either both or a different definition. Depends on the person, depends on the institution. But no one is using government programs alone as the definition.

I would also like to know what you define as “massive social programs.” I wouldn’t classify the United States as having massive social programs yet we are considered a first world country without question.

I also don’t think that cutting spending is the only way to fix the deficit, I just happen to think it’s the best way. For starters, tax revenue is usually higher when taxes are lower, check out federal tax receipts after the Bush tax cuts in 2003-2005. And raising taxes during a downswing in the economy is never a great idea. So for right now, cutting spending is a must and really our only option, because if we are to raise taxes, it would have to be on more than the wealthy to make an noticeable impact, and no politician is going to seriously propose tax increases on anyone but the wealthy right now.

Also, we have to keep in mind that tax rates aren’t the problem, tax credits and deductions are. In 2010 45% of tax payers didn’t pay any taxes (so I guess that doesn’t really make them tax payers). We handed out $1 trillion in deductions and credits last year. That’s insane, and is not sustainable. We don’t have to raise the rate, those are fine, we have to do away with the credits and deductions. The real rate (which factors in the credits and deductions) is between 17-26% for the top bracket and is 9% for the average tax payer. That’s a problem.

But Americans have become pretty solid supporters of social programs and government spending, it’s time they realize they need to pay for it!

I actually disagree with this statement. I think it depends on how you define social programs; either paid for by the government or provided by the government. I think people are in favor of government handouts, that is to say the government helps you pay for something you purchase on the private market. But I don’t think Americans like the idea of government provided programs, like a public option health care or other type of insurance.

I think two recent examples have to do with Paul Ryan, the republican in charge of the budget for the House of Representatives. Ryan proposed the idea of handing out Medicare vouchers to seniors and allowing them to purchase from private sector companies. This idea has been ridiculed by the democrats as “killing Medicare” but in actuality seniors favor Paul Ryan’s budget over Obama’s. And at a recent town hall in Wisconsin he got a standing ovation.

With that said, absolutely people are protective of the money they get from government and the services the government provides. But you act like we don’t pay enough in taxes to support the government’s services.

The federal government brings in about $2 trillion in taxes each year. But what’s really important to look at is how much tax revenue they bring in per person.

Here is a list of countries with their total tax revenue (across all government agencies), population, tax revenue per person, welfare expenditures as a percentage of GDP, and if they provide health care, and post-secondary education. What I found was interesting.

The United States collects around $10,000 in taxes per person. There are six countries that collect less taxes per person than the United States. This is only OECD countries (which doesn’t include Russia or China). Of those six countries (Spain, Greece, New Zealand, Japan, Hungary, and South Korea) five of them have some form of heavily funded, or completely controlled, government health care program. And one of them, Greece, not only provides health care but also post-secondary education as well.

Furthermore three of the six spend more as a percentage of their GDP on welfare than the United States, the smallest difference being 6% (between the United States and New Zealand). Also, there are four countries that collect only $2,000 more in taxes per person yet spend about 4% more on welfare than the United States, and all provide health care.

This shows that for what the United States provides in regards to welfare, we actually pay the right amount. The average of all of these countries is around $15,000 in tax revenue per person, and remember only eight of them don’t provide health care and 18 of them spend over 20% of their GDP on welfare. I think that taxation wise we should model more like Japan, at least according to these statistics. They spend about the same on welfare as the United States and also provide health insurance, yet they collect $4,000 less in taxes per person.

One final note about education, this also comes from OECD numbers. The average initial salary for a teacher, in US Dollars, in OECD countries is $28,949 a year. The United States average is $36,000. Compared to the OECD Country average the United States pays more for teachers, so the idea that paying teachers more will somehow increase academic performance is also misguided.

–jb

PISA scores were obtained from this table from the OECD
OECD Country Welfare Expenditures were obtained from this report

Facebook Debate: Are the Rich Getting Richer?

I engage in quite a few Facebook debates about politics, I love the debating, but I hate doing it on Facebook. I can only type so many words and I can’t insert awesome graphs and charts. So I’ve decided from now on, if the situation warrants it, I’m going to respond to all Facebook debates on my blog. That way everyone else can take part in the discussion and I can insert geeky charts and graphs.

The article in question is “The Rich Aren’t Getting Richer” from the National Review.

In the article, the author uses information from a Treasury department study on income mobility from 1996 to 2005. That document can be viewed here, and unless otherwise noted my quotes will come from that study.

The person on Facebook takes issue with the following statement from the article…

Of those who were in the poorest fifth in 1979, 85.8 percent had moved to a higher bracket by 1988, and 14.7 percent of them moved to the top bracket — which is to say, the poor of 1979 were more likely to be the rich of 1988 than to be the poor of 1988.

That information comes directly from page five of the Treasury Department study, which states…

The Treasury data showed that 86 percent of taxpayers in the lowest income quintile in 1979 had moved to a higher quintile by 1988 and 15 percent of them had moved all the way to
the top quintile. Among those who were in the top quintile in 1979, 65 percent remained in the top quintile in 1988, and only 1 percent had dropped to the lowest quintile.

So, that is verified by the Treasury Department. However, I will admit to one slight issue with that statement. It includes taxpayers under the age of 25, so when you limit it only to taxpayers age 25-64, you get the following…

When the sample was limited to taxpayers age 25 to 64 and compared to taxpayers in the panel, rather than to all taxpayers aged 25 to 64, the Treasury study showed that 50 percent of the lowest income quintile had moved to a higher quintile after 10 years.

So, still half of the lowest earners age 25-64 made it out of the lowest bracket in a ten year span, which is probably more than most people would have assumed. The Treasury study claims that economic mobility is about 50%, which is to say in any given decade about 50% of individuals are in a different income quintile.

This claim is backed up by a prior Treasury Study as well as a study by Sawhill & Condon (1992) which the Treasury study claims…

Using a measure of relative mobility that compares households within their sample, they found that over 60 percent of individuals were in a different family income quintile a decade later. Among individuals initially in the lowest income quintile, 44 percent moved to a higher quintile between 1967 and 1976.

So it seems that most people have about a 50% chance of moving out of their quintile in a given decade. And the study also showed that downward mobility from the top quintile is about the same percent (47-50%). Which is to say, once you’ve reached the top quintile, that doesn’t guarantee your safety in it, you have about a 50% chance of moving down out of it. Which is weird considering we’re told we give special treatment to the wealthy to make sure they stay wealthy.

The following graph can be seen on page seven of the Treasury Department study (click the image to view a larger size)…

This is interesting data. For starters unlike the previous Treasury study that I mentioned earlier, this data is only individuals over the age of 25. But it shows that if you were in the lower quintile in 1996 you had a better chance of moving upward than staying in the same quintile. In fact you had a slightly better chance at moving into one of the top three quintiles than moving up only one quintile (28.6% to 29.1%).

Furthermore those in the second quintile had a better chance of moving up as well (33.3% to 49.7%). The other important item to notice is the mobility within the highest quintile. Those in the top 1% had a greater chance of moving downward, only 42% of them stayed in the top 1%. We can characterize these people as the “super-rich” and they are almost just as mobile as any other income group. It’s also important to note that the middle class had a better chance of moving up as well (33.3% to 42.1%).

However, I want to focus in on the top 1% again. The Treasury study concludes that…

Put differently, more than half of the households in the top 1 percent in 2005 were not there nine years earlier. Thus, while the share of income of the top 1 percent is higher than in prior years, it is not a fixed group of households receiving this larger share of income

That’s an important analysis to note. We always talk about share of the wealth in terms of income group, where the top 1% owns about 34% of all wealth in the country (also note the difference between wealth and income). For starters that share has remained relatively the same for the last 24 years. It dipped to about 19% in 1976, but that’s the lowest it’s ever gotten, and it quickly bounced back up.

However, the treasury study seems to prove that the income group is owning the wealth, not necessarily the same people. If over half of the people in the top 1% of income earners actually went downward between 1996 and 2005, one of the most booming economic times in recent memory, than it shows that the same people aren’t owning that money, they’re just being replaced by other people, who might move out of that group and are replaced by other people. That is to say, the stability of earners in that group is no more stable than earners in any other group.

So while the top 1% might continue to own the same income, it’s not the same people controlling that wealth.

Let’s look at another table from the Treasury study, this can be found on page 10 (again, click for a larger image)…

This shows the change in income between these groups, and the biggest losers are actually the very wealthy.

In terms of mean income (or in other words average income), the top 1% saw their income increase by 12%, the lowest of any group surveyed. The lowest, in terms of quintiles, after the highest quintile was the fourth quintile at 28%. The winners were the lowest quintile occupants, who saw their mean income rise by an astonishing 235% over the ten year period. In terms of median income the top 1% saw their income go down 25%, whereas the lowest quintile saw an increase of 90%.

The study then breaks it down even further, to the top .01%, who only had a 25% stability rate (that is to say only 25% of them stayed in that group of income earners by 2005). It then breaks it down by mean and median income within the microscopic income group. The study finds that the top .01% saw a decrease in both measures. The mean income dropped 17.8% ($17.5 million to $14.3 million), the median income dropped 64.6% ($11.5 million to $4.1 million). So the “super-rich” did not get super richer from 1996 to 2005, they actually lost money.

Reasons for this decline? Probably quite a few, but I would venture to say these income earners invested a lot of money in the dot com business and lost money when the bubble burst in the early 2000′s. And also note that it’s not uncommon, the super-rich tend to lose money through economic downturns just as easily as any other income bracket.

But let’s look at the crux of this issue, the idea that the rich are getting richer. I want to look at this from an individual standpoint, not a tax bracket standpoint. We can sit here and say the top 1% own this much of wealth (again, remember that number has stayed relatively the same for the last 24 years), but I want to see the fluctuation in the number of millionaires over the last ten years. If the number has stayed the same, we can make the argument that the rich are getting richer. Essentially what we want to look for to prove that point is a decreasing number of people reporting between $1 million and $1.5 million, and an increase in the number of people reporting $10 million or more, all while the total number of people reporting $1 million or more stays the same.

The data I used came from the IRS, particularly this site, from the first set of tables on that site, “All Returns: Selected Income and Tax Items.” Inside each document it breaks down the number of returns by income group. I simply added the number of returns from 1998 to 2008 from earners making over $1 million. The compiled statistics can be found here.

Here’s what was found. In 1998 there were 171,000 people that reported an income over one million dollars. In 2008 that number was 321,000. The number peaked in 2007 at around 392,000, and it was below the 300,000 mark until 2005. The most important thing to note is that the number fluctuated, it did not stay the same throughout the ten years, and the number grew every year between 2002 and 2007. It’s also important to note that the number of people making over $10 million never eclipsed the 18,500 mark, and that it was the most fluid of all the income groups looked at (it had a tendency to change the most).

What does this mean? Well it suggests that instead of the same people accumulating more money and leaving everyone else in their dust, more people are becoming millionaires. So are the rich getting richer or are just more people getting rich? I would argue more people are just getting rich. All of the information that I have seen that claims the rich are getting richer isolate it simply by tax bracket, and doesn’t break it down by the actual individual, like this study does.

Furthermore if we use the Treasury study and say that around 50% of taxpayers find themselves in a different quintile in a ten year span, and that most of the people in the top 1% move downward instead of staying in the top 1%, it’s safe to assume that people swiftly move in and out of the highest quintile and that they are replaced by members of other quintiles, in fact the Treasury study proves just that.

Also, looking at the number of people making over $1 million shows a variation of nearly 200,000 over a ten year span, meaning that the same people aren’t just making more money, there’s more people making that level of money.

I’m not going to say that this alone proves the rich aren’t getting richer, but I think it certainly throws a monkey wrench in the common argument from the left that they are. Income mobility is more fluid than we think and it is just as fluid in the top brackets as it is in the lower bracket. Which proves that while the rich still control a large chunk of the wealth, it’s not the same people controlling that wealth.

–jb